What Determines Trust in Local Governance During the War in Ukraine?

Abstract

This study explores the factors shaping trust in local governance during wartime in Ukraine, emphasizing the relevance of this topic amid large-scale decentralization reforms and the 2022 full-scale Russian invasion. The research draws on data from the USAID HOVERLA project, analyzing 33,626 survey responses from 86 hromadas across seven oblasts. Survey-weighted linear regression models are employed to examine trust dynamics in local government institutions and starostas (headmen), incorporating socio-demographic factors, satisfaction with services, budget transparency, civic optimism, and citizen participation. The findings highlight the importance of service performance, transparency, and responsiveness in building public trust. Transparent budget management and responsiveness to citizen feedback emerge as critical drivers, mediating the relationship between participation and trust. While trust in local government reflects systemic performance, trust in starostas is influenced by personal engagement and visibility. Socio-demographic differences, such as higher trust among rural residents, older individuals, and women, further shape these dynamics. The study concludes that trust operates through both “consumer” logic-rooted in service satisfaction – and “citizen” logic, emphasizing accountability and fairness. Recommendations include prioritizing resource transparency, ensuring meaningful responses to citizen engagement, and strengthening the role of starostas in rural communities to foster resilience and trust under crisis conditions.